Forecasts

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The AMRDC is working with the Naval Information Warfare Center (NIWC) on using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model output from the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS), along with data from the NIWC Automatic Weather Station (AWS) network and the University of Wisconsin (UW) AWS network in the Ross Island region, to compare realtime observations to model output. The AMRDC has developed a procedure that compares the two. Map and time series plots are created to show the AWS observation, the forecast model output, and their difference.

WRF model output from AMPS for the 2.67-km Ross Sea grid (grid 3) are used. Model initialization times are 00 and 12 UTC each day, and grid 3 offers hourly forecast output out to 39 hours. The 2 to 3 most recent model outputs are used for this comparison, depending on availability. NIWC and UW AWS observations at the top of the hour are compared with the corresponding model output.